Contagion - Definition by Worldbank

May 8, 2008 – 11:48 pm

The World Bank has a fairly comprehensive overview over different definitions of contagion and documents related to recent contagious events in the financial markets.

Some excerpts:

  • Broad Definition: Contagion is the cross-country transmission of shocks or the general cross-country spillover effects.
  • Restrictive Definition: Contagion is the transmission of shocks to other countries or the cross-country correlation, beyond any fundamental link among the countries and beyond common shocks. This definition is usually referred as excess co-movement, commonly explained by herding behavior.
  • Very Restrictive Definition: Contagion occurs when cross-country correlations increase during “crisis times” relative to correlations during “tranquil times.”
  • Fundamental Links Among Countries:
    • Financial links exist when two economies are connected through the international financial system through portfolio investment.
    • Real links are the fundamental economic relationship among economies through trade and foreign direct investment (more papers here).
    • Political links are the political relationships among countries because of “clubs of countries” with similar exchange rate arrangements (more papers here.
  • Herding Behavior: Asymmetric information makes markets move jointly. Herding may be rational for a private investor due to transaction costs when gathering information. On the public level, contagion can cause market excuberance, balance of payments and banking crises (more papers here).
  • Papers on Policy Options
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